Stella Thio · PropNex
Free entry price check

New launch vs resale, on the record

New launch or resale won't decide your profit. Your entry price will.

I matched 8,001 condo exits since January 2025 to what the same floor band and size sold for in 2021–22. Both routes made money. What separated the buyers was the price they paid against their own building's rate.

Check my entry price See the record
Exits matched
8,001
URA caveats, Jan 2025 – Sep 2026
Median gain, both routes
+15.3% · +17.8%
New launch · Resale
Entry vs building's rate
+24.8% vs +11.4%
Bought 10% below · 10% above

Free · out within one working day

Get your Entry Price Check

Name the project or area you're looking at. I pull its own caveat record for your floor band and size, put the district's going rate beside it, and tell you where the asking price sits.

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+65
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Name a project, or an area if you're still deciding.
Pick one so I know which record to pull.
Choose a budget band.
Choose a timeline.

No obligation, no hard sell. One page with the numbers, and a WhatsApp message from me if you want it walked through.

By sending this you agree to be contacted by phone, SMS, email or WhatsApp about your request, under the PDPA. Tell us to stop at any time and we will.

Is this you?

The advice is about the type. The record is about the price.

01

The agent says new launch. Your friend says resale.

Both sound certain, and neither has shown you a single caveat.

02

The showflat quotes S$2,400 psf. The condo across the road resells at S$1,700.

Is that gap paying for something, or is it just the gap?

03

You're told to book before the developer raises prices.

Is that a reason, or a sales line?

04

You want to buy once and hold five to eight years.

And not be the buyer somebody else made their profit from.

The record · part 1

Both routes made money. That is the point.

Every sub-sale and resale in the URA record since January 2025, compared with what the same project sold the same floor band and size for in 2021–22.

By segment, 2021–22 entry to 2025–26 exit

SegmentNew-launch entryExitsResale entryExits
CCR+9.1%18+8.1%734
RCR+14.6%70+16.3%1,811
OCR+16.1%193+19.7%5,175
All+15.3%281+17.8%7,720
Swipe to see all columns

Median change in psf. New-launch entries: developer sales Oct 2021 – Dec 2022 in projects that launched in that window (12 projects). Resale entries: resales Sep 2021 – Dec 2022 (456 projects). 93% of new-launch exits and 96% of resale exits were above their entry. URA caveat data, retrieved 14 Sep 2026.

Same district, same years, side by side

DistrictNew launchEntry psfResaleEntry psf
D8 · Piccadilly Grand+15.7%2,102+19.9%1,697
D15 · Liv @ MB+15.4%2,299+15.4%1,547
D16 · Sky Eden @ Bedok+15.3%2,107+20.5%1,258
D18 · Pasir Ris 8+1.4%2,068+22.1%1,163
D20 · Amo Residence+20.9%2,073+17.9%1,629
D26 · Lentor Modern+16.4%2,048+27.1%1,087
D27 · The Commodore+16.4%1,517+15.9%1,117
Swipe to see all columns

Median gain and median entry psf, same windows. New launch column: exits in the named project. Resale column: every matched resale exit in that district. Exit counts: D8 36/48 · D15 22/484 · D16 13/538 · D18 38/892 · D20 39/275 · D26 61/70 · D27 42/333.

Read down the rows. In two districts the new launch did better. In five the resale did. In D18 the gap was +1.4% against +22.1%, and what separated the two groups was the S$905 psf between their entry prices.

The record · part 2

The price you pay against the building's own rate

Same exits, sorted by one thing: how the earlier buyer's entry psf compared with what every other buyer in that project was paying at the time.

Entry vs project medianExitsMedian gainAbove entry
More than 10% above462+11.4%90%
5–10% above1,007+13.7%92%
Within 5%4,979+18.1%97%
5–10% below847+24.4%97%
More than 10% below425+24.8%98%
Swipe to see all columns

7,720 resale exits, Jan 2025 – Sep 2026. "Project median" is that project's median resale psf across Sep 2021 – Dec 2022. URA caveat data, retrieved 14 Sep 2026.

Same buildings, five steps of entry price, five steps of profit. Paying 10% over your neighbours' rate did not stop you making money. It halved it. In new launches the split was sharper still: +2.9% for the buyers above the launch median against +16.8% for those below it.

The record · part 3

Same project. Same floor band. Same size. Different profit.

Lentor Modern sold 521 units by the end of 2022, and the price for one floor band and one size was never a single number. 61 have since changed hands.

Floor · sizeCheapest entry madePriciest entry madeDeveloper psf, 2022Sub-sale psf, 2025–26
16–20 · 678 sq ft+13.5%−8.0%2,124 – 2,3242,138 – 2,411
21–25 · 732 sq ft+16.5%−3.2%2,228 – 2,5132,432 – 2,596
06–10 · 678 sq ft+7.9%−1.3%2,022 – 2,1582,131 – 2,182
11–15 · 732 sq ft+22.2%+1.3%2,080 – 2,3592,391 – 2,541
06–10 · 1,109 sq ft+27.9%+3.6%1,887 – 2,0732,147 – 2,413
06–10 · 990 sq ft+22.6%+13.0%1,972 – 2,0142,277 – 2,419
Swipe to see all columns

Lentor Modern, D26. Developer sales Sep – Dec 2022 grouped by URA floor range and strata size (10 to 35 caveats per row); sub-sales Jan 2025 – Sep 2026 in the same group (2 to 7 per row). "Cheapest entry" = highest exit against the lowest developer price in the row; "Priciest entry" = lowest exit against the highest. URA does not record the stack or facing, so part of each range is the view you paid for. Results before stamp duty, SSD and costs. Past transactions do not predict future returns.

The record · part 4

What the buyers who lost paid, and what the winners paid

256 projects had ten or more resales in both windows. The median moved +20.2%. Eight went backwards.

ProjectChange2021–22 psf2025–26 psf
Marina One Residences · D1−20.1%2,3901,908
Corals at Keppel Bay · D4−18.3%2,5602,091
V on Shenton · D1−12.4%2,1531,885
The Coast at Sentosa Cove · D4−8.9%1,6701,521
River Isles · D19+39.4%1,1151,554
Waterfront Isle · D16+38.1%1,2761,763
Waterview · D18+37.1%1,0951,502
Kovan Melody · D19+37.0%1,3191,806
Swipe to see all columns

Median resale psf, Sep 2021 – Dec 2022 against Oct 2025 – Sep 2026, projects with at least 10 resales in each window (all eight are 99-year leasehold). Caveat counts: 96/49 · 15/10 · 26/21 · 13/14 · 54/22 · 44/17 · 63/15 · 44/22. URA caveat data, retrieved 14 Sep 2026.

Look at the entry prices, not the postcodes. The buyers who lost paid S$1,670 to S$2,560 psf for a number the next buyer would not match. The buyers who gained most paid S$1,095 to S$1,319, and the next buyer paid more.

How I check an entry price

Four things I look at before I call a price fair

1

The project's own record

Not the project average. The caveat range for your floor band and your size, from the first developer sale to last month.

2

The district's going rate

What resale buyers pay for the same size in that district today. If the new-launch premium over it runs past 30%, I want to know what the extra buys.

3

Your exit buyer

In five to eight years someone compares your unit with what is around it then, including launches that have not happened yet.

4

One number

The entry psf at which the unit works for your hold, and the psf above which the profit is going to someone else.

What you get

The Entry Price Check, free, on the unit you're considering

One page built for the project or area you name. No brochure, no launch of the week. If the asking price is above what the record supports, I will say so.

1

Your floor band and size, launch to now

The full caveat range for that unit type in that project.

2

The district's going rate beside it

What resale buyers are paying for the same size this year.

3

Where the asking price sits

Above, at, or below the project's own median, in psf and in dollars on your unit.

4

The number

The entry psf at which it works for your hold, and the psf above which I would walk away.

Out within one working day  ·  Free, no obligation  ·  URA caveat data, not portal asking prices

Check my entry price
Stella Thio, PropNex

Who is checking

Stella Thio, PropNex

I trained in economics and statistics before I sold property, and I have run the developer side of the table as well as the buyer side. That is why I keep coming back to the caveat record.

  • Project Chief for 14 Core Central Region developments
  • PropNex Millionaire, five years running, 2020–2024
  • Six-time Champion Luxury Tagger · Former Senior Dealing Director
  • CEA registration [CEA no.] · PropNex Realty Pte Ltd (L3008022J)
"I don't mind whether you buy new or resale. I mind what you pay, because that's the one number you can't change afterwards."Stella Thio

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Find out where your entry price sits

New launch or resale, one unit or a shortlist. Name it, and I'll send you the record.

Please enter your name.
+65
Enter an 8-digit Singapore mobile starting with 8 or 9.
Please enter a valid email.
Name a project, or an area if you're still deciding.
Pick one so I know which record to pull.
Choose a budget band.
Choose a timeline.

No obligation, no hard sell. Tell me to stop at any time.

By sending this you agree to be contacted by phone, SMS, email or WhatsApp about your request, under the PDPA. Tell us to stop at any time and we will.

Check my entry price